Current situation of transformation and upgrading

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Current situation of transformation and upgrading methods and investment scale of the coal chemical industry

transformation and upgrading methods of the coal chemical industry

(I) environmental protection policies promote the continuous upgrading of the energy structure

under the pressure of the hot topic haze, the government's environmental protection policies and environmental protection law enforcement were stricter in 2015

in terms of coal, it is mainly reflected in the following aspects: first, downstream enterprises limit production or stop production due to environmental protection problems, such as steel and chemical enterprises in Hebei, Shandong and other places; Second, the environmental protection of coal itself and the clean utilization of coal processing and transformation; Third, water, nuclear, wind, photovoltaic and other new energy sources continue to expand the squeeze on the fossil energy market. In 2014, due to the large increase of hydropower during the wet season, China's summer peak power consumption was digested, and coal-fired power plants produced under full load during the peak power consumption for the first time

Under the heavy pressure of environmental protection, clean energy will occupy a larger market share. From the perspective of energy consumption structure in recent years, the proportion of fossil energy has decreased year by year. The total amount of non fossil energy increased from 370 million tons of standard coal in 2013 to 430 million tons in 2014, while the total amount of coal consumption has decreased. China's total coal resources once accounted for more than 90% of the total primary energy resources, but the proportion will be controlled within 62% in the next few years, and the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will be further increased

after the State formulates clean coal standards, some low-quality coal with high sulfur and high ash will be forced to stop production and delisted, and the emission costs of coal mine wastewater and gangue residue will further increase. In particular, the environmental protection measures around Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei will be more stringent, forcing coal enterprises to recognize the situation, start to reinvent themselves as soon as possible, and break through the hard pass of environmental protection

(II) the global economy continues to be depressed, and foreign coal has impacted the domestic coal market

after China changed from a net exporter of coal to a net importer of coal in 2009, it surpassed Japan to become the world's largest importer of coal in 2011, reaching a maximum of 327 million tons in 2013, accounting for 8.89% of the national coal production of 3.68 billion tons that year. In 2014, the total amount of imported coal decreased to 290 million tons, accounting for 7.52% of the national coal trading volume of 3.87 billion tons. The main reasons for the decline of imported coal in 2014 are as follows: first, China has increased the import tariff of some kinds of coal; Second, due to the downturn in the domestic market, China's total coal consumption accounts for more than half of the global coal production. The markets of Mongolia, Australia, Indonesia, Brazil and other countries simply cannot absorb their own production capacity. Some coal mine markets are targeted at China, Japan, South Korea and other countries. It is estimated that the imported coal will still be more than 250 million tons in 2015, which continues to have an impact on China's narrowed coal market under the new normal

imported coal has the advantages of high quality, stable price and large-scale transportation. It once occupied China's southeast coastal coal market. After the international oil price fell, the transportation cost was further reduced. Compared with China's inland coal, it still has a strong price competitive advantage in southeast coastal cities. Since 2014, the international crude oil price has fallen by more than half. As long as the oil price is close to or lower than the coal price, the market will be more inclined to use oil

(III) serious overcapacity forces the coal industry to be reborn.

the "ceiling" of the volume is about 4.5 billion tons, while the existing capacity has exceeded 4 billion tons, and the scale under construction is more than 1 billion tons, and the import will still maintain a large scale

at the same time, the economic downturn and overcapacity have become a foregone conclusion. Taking Shanxi Province as an example, since 2009, the provincial government has carried out the integration of coal resources and the technological transformation of coal mines. The number of coal mines has been reduced from 2598 to 1053, and the number of mine operators has been reduced from 2200 to 130. The number of coal mines has been reduced, but the design production capacity of coal has been significantly higher than that before the integration. We are committed to promoting the improvement of water-based Pu technology. In order to ensure the safe production of coal mines, the provincial government has implemented the horse drawn cart, Improve the design standards and strictly supervise the implementation, so that the actual production capacity of some coal mines is far greater than the design capacity. At present, most of these coal mines have been basically transformed. Coupled with emerging technologies such as green and intelligent means and intelligent systems, the statistical output of coal in the province in 2014 was 977 million tons, which is far from reaching the actual production capacity. The main reason is that it has not been released due to market factors, and the prices of coking coal, power coal and other coal continue to fall throughout the year

in Shanxi, coal mines with good coal quality can maintain a slight surplus in costs, and coal mines with poor coal quality can't even maintain costs, but most coal mines still don't limit production. As long as the coal bunker can be put down, they will continue to produce, resulting in a substantial increase in the province's coal inventory. International crude oil fell, oil producing countries still have profits, and Shanxi raw coal will lose money if it falls again

the main reasons for the high coal cost are: the continuous improvement of coal mine mechanization, the increase of personnel wages, and the increase of financial operation costs caused by the high interest financing transformation of most coal mines. The strong capacity under construction focuses on the coal market with narrower demand under the new normal, just like a weight weighing on a scale. Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, the two major coal producing provinces in China, which account for more than 70% of the inter provincial coal output, are so leading that the downward pressure on coal prices in 2015 will not be reduced, and the coal economy can only maintain a low operating situation

to sum up, the coal industry is in a new normal where "market demand is slowing down, capacity inventory is digested, environmental constraints are strengthened, and structural adjustment is crucial". This is the inevitable result of sustained and high-speed development for more than a decade, and the objective embodiment of the role of economic, social and natural laws. It is not only a severe challenge to the coal industry, but also contains important development opportunities. Coal enterprises have reached the critical moment of competing for strength, management, cost and market

it is inevitable that the coal market will continue to decline in 2015, and the coal price will continue to fluctuate around the production cost. But the floating range is narrowing. p> The era of coal enterprises profiteering is long gone. On the basis of improving the safety, efficiency, green and intelligent level of coal and coal production technology, we must innovate and develop new modern coal chemical products such as coal to liquid and coal to gas, promote the transformation of the industry from raw coal to commercial coal and clean coal, promote the transfer of production capacity to non coal industries and overseas markets, and make full use of financial derivatives to avoid risks and escort, so as to truly blaze a trail in the general environment of market downturn

investment scale in coal chemical industry

a few years ago, when large-scale fixed asset investment in coal was formed, the complete after-sales service system of merchants was particularly important. The production capacity and resource integration and technological transformation of mines in major coal producing provinces and regions were entering the production period one after another. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, since 2010, the annual average increase of coal production capacity has been 400million tons, the construction of production capacity is ahead of schedule, and the pressure of market excess is increasing. Even though the coal price has fallen since 2012, the early investment has not fallen rapidly

in 2013, the fixed asset investment in the coal industry was 523.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. In 2000, before the launch of the coal gold decade, the annual investment of the industry was less than 10billion, and then continued to grow, reaching 180billion in 2007, 240billion in 2008, and 520billion until 2012. The 520 billion investment is roughly equivalent to the addition of more than 600 million capacity

the total coal production capacity remains high, and the continuous release of production capacity with high investment is also one of the reasons for the continuous decline of coal prices

in 2014, the national fixed asset investment in coal mining and washing industry was 468.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. Compared with the 2% decline in 2013, the decline in investment in the coal industry in 2014 further expanded, reflecting the investment downturn caused by overcapacity and weak demand

at the same time, the private investment in the coal industry in 2014 was 259.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, accounting for 55% of the total national investment

only when the annual fixed asset investment of the coal industry returns to the level of 2008 can the coal industry return to normal. In addition, the international coal market is gradually taking shape, and Southeast Asia and Australia have built a lot of capacity for Chinese demand. The balance of domestic capacity should be considered in the international market, and there is still a lot of room for domestic overcapacity to be reduced

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